The Progressive Option for Germany and the Euro Zone: a G2R coalition led by the Greens

Three weeks before Germany’s (and Europe’s) most important election since 2009, the polls continue to predict a near-stalemate (Patt) between the two opposing camps. The governing conservative coalition of CDU/CSU & FDP is estimated to garner 45%, the opposition of SPD (red=R), Greens (=G), and the LINKE (red=R) together would atttain 44%, of which the SPD with chancellor candidate Steinbrueck would contribute only 23%. These results come as no surprise to me given my earlier assessment of Peer Steinbrück (see my post "What do recent events mean for the EU and economic policy in the eurozone?").

As a former finance minister responsible for the deregulation of Germany’s financial sector, and a millionaire from speaking fees he made while on the payroll of the German taxpayer, he not only lacks credibility as a candidate for the average voter. He also comes across as arrogant, old-fashioned and macho, an attitude that does not sit well with the largest group of voters: namely women over 50, many of whom share the experience of being passed over for leadership positions by a less qualified and less experienced German alpha male.

Yet, what hurts Steinbrueck the most is his continued support of former chancellor Schroeder’s Agenda 2010 policies which punched huge holes into Germany's social safety net, created a new bottom-feeding low-wage sector (down to €1 an hour) and precarious employment conditions for many workers, esp. the young, the low-skilled, and those with an immigrant background. This in a country whose 19th century chancellor Otto von Bismarck pioneered the introduction of a social security system for workers and which derived much of its post-war stability and economic success from its tightly knit social safety net and good treatment of its highly productive German employees ! Not surprisingly, following the introduction of Agenda 2010 policies in 2003, Schroeder's coalition with the Greens was quickly voted out of power in 2005, allowing Merkel to take over. That lesson should have been learned by now – but NO, not by Steinbrueck & Co. He even decided that former chancellor Schroeder – the nemesis for many Agenda-hating Germans – should help him in his campaign. Result: SPD polling numbers declined by 1-2%age points.

The understandable reaction of voters who don’t wish a repeat of the SPD/Greens coalition of 2003 but don’t want a continuation of the Merkel government either: choose the LINKE instead, the only party that plans a reinstatement of the German safety net, the dismantling of the low-wage sector, and the reinstatement of former employee protections on Germany’s labor market. According to the latest polls, roughly 10% of the voters would choose the LINKE, sending a loud message to the SPD and the Greens: we don’t want a repeat of the SPD/Greens coalition that implemented the Agenda policies, therefore we are voting for a strong LINKE to enable a red-red-green coalition (R2G = SPD+Linke+Greens). Public reaction of the SPD (and some Greens): we will not form a coalition with the LINKE, period. The problem is: an SPD/Greens coalition alone will most likely NOT get a majority which means that SPD and Greens would (again) have to yield power to another Merkel government.

Helloooo !!!!! Anybody home ?????  Do you (conservative members of the SPD and Greens) really want to ignore 10% of the voting population because your alpha males don't want to 'play' with the LINKE ? That’s undemocratic and hopelessly childish. Time for a woman to tell those alpha males to go to their room and stay there until they are reasonable. While the alpha males sulk in their rooms, reasonable women and men are free to think of other ways out of this dilemma. The only other option for voters who neither want a continuation of the Merkel government nor a repetition of the 2003 SPD/Greens coalition is a progressive G2R coalition (Greens+SPD+LINKE) led by Juergen Trittin of the Greens. In contrast to Peer Steinbrueck, Trittin has no Agenda skeletons in his closet and, to my knowledge, has never ruled out a coalition with the LINKE, which holds the key to the only true power option to send the Merkel government packing and reshape economic policy in Germany and the eurozone.

In contrast to a Steinbrueck government, a Trittin government would be an economically progressive, left-of-center government. I agree with Wolfgang Münchau, an economic journalist for the Financial Times: the Greens and the Linke are the only two parties that provide an honest and correct analysis of the euro crisis. In contrast to Münchau, however, I think that a G2R coalition (rather than an R2G coaliton) would be able to design the best economic policies for a socially fair and progressive solution of the euro crisis and a better life for those left behind in Germany.